In general term I think it’s safe to conlude the following:
- The majority of daytraders lose money, certainly new ones. The turnover of daytraders is very high. The longer you survive, the better odds for making a living in the future. Personally I know no trader who hit it off right off the bat.
- However, some surviving daytraders are profitable and some very few make a tremendous amount of money daytrading.
Tuco Trading, a professional trading form based in San Diego, were taken over by the SEC in March 2008. The reason was “illegal trading” in securities (I won’t go into detail about this case but this business is very regulated). However, the courtcase revealed a lot about the profitability of the traders, which mostly were daytraders. By chance I got hold of some of the papers from the courtcase. One paper showed the P/L for each trader for 2007. Given that the papers are correct, they shed some light on profitability. I don’t want to publish the papers, so I’ll just summarize them and you can make your own conclusions:
- 206 active traders per 31. December 2007
- 33 profitable (16%)
- 173 unprofitable (84%)
- 7 with more than 50 000 USD in profits (3%)
- 57 with losses over 10 000 USD (28%)
Quite bad numbers!
Why do they fail? Here’s my take in order of importance:
- Many lacks discipline and understanding of how long it takes too learn the markets
- They don’t have the passion and work ethic
- Take too much risk, too extrovert
You can’t make it with average attitude. In a salaried position you can do ok coming in at 8 in the morning and leaving at 4. In trading you can of course work less, but you have to the what is right. I do ok and spend less than 5 hours a day doing this. This is solely due to my 12 years experience.
Personally I think trading is a struggle most of the time: struggle to make money, struggle psychologically to do what is right and a struggle to make decisions. Most people can’t accept this and will ultimately fail.