Election Day Performance (Stock Markets – Backtest)

The US has two main political parties, with different ideologies and policy directions. It is expected that the party that controls the White House and Congress can have a huge impact on equities markets. But what has been the election day performance in the stock market? What has been the performance after election days? As…

Post Holiday Seasonal Effect On Stock Market (Strategy, Examples, And Backtests)

We have in a previous article determined that there is a positive holiday effect in stocks. This effect happens on the days before the holiday. But is there an opposite effect? Is there a post-holiday seasonal effect in the stock market? Yes, there are certain tradeable post-holiday seasonal effects in the stock market. We present…

The Thanksgiving Holiday Effect In Trading (Black Friday Effect)

Thanksgiving Day is one of the federal holidays in the US. The day after Thanksgiving is called Black Friday and is a day when consumers go on a shopping spree. But how does Thanksgiving affect the US stock markets? Stock market performance during Thanksgiving is higher than any random week. The US financial markets do…

President Election Cycles Stocks — What Are They? (Backtest)

In the United States, a presidential election is held every four years. Those presidential elections have been observed to affect many government sectors, including legislation, international relations, and even the stock market. This occurrence inspired the concept of presidential election cycles. But what exactly are they? The presidential election cycle theory is a stock market…

The Easter Holiday Effect In Trading (Holy Thursday – Best Day Of The Year For Stocks?)

Easter is a Christian holiday celebrated across the world. But does it affect trading on the U.S. stock exchanges and other financial markets? We look at how the stock market performs before and after the Easter holiday. Additionally, we specifically look at the performance of stocks the day before Good Friday – Holy Thursday. Easter…

Which Trading Hour Is The Best? When Should You Buy And Sell During The Day?

Which trading hour is the best? Does the time of day make a difference when trading? When should you buy and sell during the trading day? Seasonal trading strategies can take many forms and in any time frame. This article looks at intraday data for some of the most traded futures contracts. There is no…

The 4th of July Holiday Effect In Trading (Independence Day Effect – Backtest And Strategy)

The 4th of July (Independence Day) is one of the federal holidays in the US. How does it affect the US financial markets? The US financial markets do not open on the 4th of July, being a federal holiday to mark US independence. No trading takes place on any of the U.S. stock exchanges and…

The Martin Luther King Jr. Day Holiday Effect In Trading (Backtest And Strategy)

Martin Luther King Jr. Day is one of the federal holidays observed in the US. How does it affect trading on the US stock markets? The US financial markets do not open on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which is the third Monday in January. No trading takes place on any of the U.S. stock…

Quadruple Witching Day – What Is It And Is It Bullish Or Bearish? (Quad Witching Backtest)

Quadruple witching day (quad witching)- facts vs myths. Because the quadruple witching day is surrounded by presumable myths, we would like to dig deeper into these rare days that happen only four times per year. Is quadruple witching a volatile day? Is the volume higher than normal? Is it a bearish or bullish day? Do…

Trading The Futures Expiration Week In DAX 40 And Euro Stoxx 50

Our backtests indicate that both DAX 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 have much better performance during the futures expiration week compared to any other random week. Let’s start with the DAX 40 contract: DAX 40 futures contracts expire four times per year: the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The contract is one…

End Of Month Effect In NIFTY 50 – Does It Exist? (Turn Of The Month)

Our backtests suggest that NIFTY 50 has a positive end of month effect. A variation of the inputs does not change the result dramatically, thus the end of month effect seems reasonably robust. The end of month effect is well documented in the US stock market, sometimes referred to as the turn of the month…

How To Use The Weekday Effect In Trading (Does The Day Of The Week Make A Difference?)

The weekday effect in trading can be a handy trading edge because trading is about exploiting small trading edges in the market. If you work hard and diversify with different markets, time frames, strategies, and market directions, you can develop a decent portfolio of strategies that hopefully give you a smooth equity curve. Can the…

Trading The Week After Options Expiration Week (Post Options Expiration)

The week after options expiration week is after the third Saturday each month. The week before, the options expiration week, is normally a positive week for stocks. How does the stock market perform during the week after options expiration week? Is it possible to develop trading strategies the week after options expiration week? Our backtests…

Seasonal Trading Strategies – Why Use Seasonalities And Seasonality In Trading

Seasonal trading strategies The year has four different seasons and the financial markets have seasonal patterns that you can be made into seasonal trading strategies. Seasonal trading refers to seasonal patterns that occur at regular intervals in certain time frames. Let’s call them seasonal trading strategies for simplicity. This article looks at why you should…

Last Trading Day Of The Month Trading Strategy (Last Day Of The Month Seasonality)

The last trading day of the month offers trading opportunities. This is one of many seasonal trading strategies.  Can we make a last trading day of the month trading strategy? The last trading day of the month is a weak day in the stock market – the last trading day of the month is a…

The First Day Of Month Seasonality In The S&P 500 (Trading The First Day Of The Month)

The first day of the month seasonality is strong in most markets. We have previously written about the turn of the month trading strategy, but today we look at the first trading day of the month. The turn of the month includes both the end of the month and the first three trading days of…

The Options Expiration Week Effect (Options Week Anomaly And Seasonality) | OPEX

The options expiration happens on the Friday before the 3rd Saturday of each month in the US. An often referred to effect is the options expiration week effect. Is this effect for real or is it just a myth? In this article, we test the option expiration week effect: The performance of the S&P 500…

First Trading Day Of The Month Trading Strategy (First Day Of The Month Effect)

There are many effects and seasonalities in the stock market. One frequently mentioned seasonality is the first trading day of the month effect. Is the first trading day of the month effect a myth or fact? In this article, we look at how the stock market (the S&P 500) performs on the first trading day…

The Holiday Effect In Stock Markets (Holiday Effect On The Stock Market)

The Holiday effect system in the stock market is a well-known anomaly and seasonality. Is there a way to profit from the holiday effect seasonality? Are there any holiday effects in the stock markets? If so, which holiday is the best? The holiday effect strategy seems to be significant for Independence Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas….