Becoming a proficient trader involves recognizing when it’s best to trade, making it crucial to identify the art of knowing when to take the front seat. Consequently, determining the most favorable days to trade stocks is just as crucial as any other aspect. So, what are the best days to trade stocks? The best days…
St. Patrick’s Day is an important day for Catholics. Is the day just as green for stocks as for those celebrating? St. Patrick’s Day is one of the best days of the year for stocks, but that is thanks to the performance over the last 30 years. Let’s find out why we celebrate St. Patrick’s…
The options expiration happens on the Friday before the 3rd Saturday of each month in the US. An often referred to effect is the options expiration week effect. Is this effect real, or is it just a myth? In this article, we test the option expiration week effect: S&P 500 shows abnormal positive returns during…
The Valentine’s Day rally is an annual event in which stock prices tend to increase in anticipation of the romantic holiday. The rally has been studied extensively by investors and economists alike, with a variety of conclusions drawn from the data. Is there a Valentine’s Day Rally in stocks? Yes, the evidence seems to confirm…
Friday the 13th has long been associated with bad luck, though the exact origin of the superstition is not known (to our knowledge). Those who grew up reading Donald Duck know the bad luck that happened on Friday the 13th. But is Friday the 13th an unlucky day? Backtests reveal that Friday the 13th has…
The US has two main political parties, with different ideologies and policy directions. It is expected that the party that controls the White House and Congress can have a huge impact on equities markets. But what has been the election day performance in the stock market? What has been the performance after election days? As…
One of the most important factors in becoming a good trader is to know when you should NOT trade. The art of when to do nothing and just sit on your hands is just as important as anything else. So, what are the worst days to trade stocks (when you should sit on your hands)?…
Most US taxpayers have a deadline on the 15th of April to file their tax returns. If the date is on a Saturday, Sunday, or legal holiday, the due date is delayed until the next business day. Does Tax Day signal any bullish or bearish trading signal? Does Tax Day affect the stock market? Let’s…
We have, in a previous article, determined that there is a positive holiday effect in stocks. This effect happens on the days before the holiday. But is there an opposite effect? Is there a post-holiday seasonal effect in the stock market? Yes, there are certain tradeable post-holiday seasonal effects in the stock market. We present…
Thanksgiving Day is one of the federal holidays in the US. The day after Thanksgiving is called Black Friday and is a day when consumers go on a shopping spree. But how does Thanksgiving affect the US stock markets? Stock market performance during Thanksgiving is higher than any random week. The US financial markets do…
In the United States, a presidential election is held every four years. Those presidential elections have been observed to affect many government sectors, including legislation, international relations, and even the stock market. This occurrence inspired the concept of presidential election cycles. But what exactly are they? The presidential election cycle theory is a stock market…
Easter is a Christian holiday celebrated across the world. But does it affect trading on the U.S. stock exchanges and other financial markets? We look at how the stock market performs before and after the Easter holiday. Additionally, we specifically look at the performance of stocks the day before Good Friday – Holy Thursday. Easter…
Which trading hour is the best? Does the time of day make a difference when trading? When should you buy and sell during the trading day? Seasonal trading strategies can take many forms and in any time frame. This article looks at intraday data for some of the most traded futures contracts. There is no…
The Labor Day holiday is one of the federal holidays observed in the US. But does it affect the US financial markets? The US financial markets do not open on the Labor Day holiday, which is the first Monday in September. No trading takes place on any of the U.S. stock exchanges. Backtests conclude that…
The 4th of July (Independence Day) is one of the federal holidays in the US. How does it affect the US financial markets? The US financial markets do not open on the 4th of July, being a federal holiday to mark US independence. No trading takes place on any of the U.S. stock exchanges and…
The Memorial Day holiday is one of the federal holidays in the US. How does it affect trading in the US financial markets? The US financial markets do not open on Memorial Day because it is a federal holiday. Trading does not take place on any of the U.S. stock exchanges on that day, and…
Martin Luther King Jr. Day is one of the federal holidays observed in the US. How does it affect trading on the US stock markets? The US financial markets do not open on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which is the third Monday in January. No trading takes place on any of the U.S. stock…
Quadruple witching day (quad witching)- facts vs myths. Because the quadruple witching day is surrounded by presumable myths, we would like to dig deeper into these rare days that happen only four times per year. Is quadruple witching a volatile day? Is the volume higher than normal? Is it a bearish or bullish day? Do…
Yes, our backtests indicate that there is an end of month effect in Bitcoin and this can potentially be a viable turn of the month trading strategy. The end of month effect, sometimes referred to as the turn of the month effect, is well known in US stocks and most other stock indices all over…
The Euro Bund futures contract shows weak seasonal performance during the futures expiration week. The contract has ticker code FGBL, is issued by Germany, has a maturity between 8.5 and 10.5 years, and one contract has a value of 100 000 EUR. It’s a heavily traded futures contract that expires four times per year: on…
Our backtests indicate that both DAX 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 have much better performance during the futures expiration week compared to any other random week. Let’s start with the DAX 40 contract: DAX 40 futures contracts expire four times per year: the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The contract is one…
The Euro Stoxx 50 has mixed performance the week after futures expiration. Euro Stoxx 50 is a very popular trading vehicle. It’s one of the most traded futures contracts in the world. The contracts expire on the third Friday of the last month of each quarter: March, June. September, and December. If you are not…
The Euro Bund (FGBL) shows significant positive performance following the expiration of the previous future contract. The Euro Bund (FGBL) is a bond contract with a maturity of 8.5 to 10.5 years. It’s issued by Germany and one contract has a value of 100 000 EUR. EuroBund is a popular trading vehicle and is heavily…
The Congressional Effect in stocks– we suspect you have never heard of it. Neither had we! But this is one of the many seasonal effects in the stock market. The man behind the effect, hedge fund manager Eric Singer, had so much faith in this seasonal effect that he set up a fund to profit…
Our backtests suggest that NIFTY 50 has a positive end of month effect. A variation of the inputs does not change the result dramatically, thus the end of month effect seems reasonably robust. The end of month effect is well documented in the US stock market, sometimes referred to as the turn of the month…
The Santa Claus Rally in DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 Our backtests show significantly better performance during the Christmas season and the end of the year. The Santa Claus rally is no myth in Europe, either! The end of year rally in DAX40 is alive and well. It’s a pretty well-known “fact” that stock markets…
Trading the week after futures expiration in DAX 40 This article looks at the performance of the DAX futures contracts in the week after the expiration of the contract. DAX 40 was changed in 2021 from DAX 30 and is one of the most heavily traded futures contracts in the world. The contracts expire on…
The Santa Claus Rally In Emerging Markets One of the seasonal strongest periods is approaching: the Christmas holiday. The Santa Claus Rally or the end of the year effect has proven to show strong gains in the US markets and most of the Western stock exchanges. In general, the holiday effect is well documented and…
Can we find the same Santa Claus Rally in NIFTY as we do in the US? We are approaching perhaps the strongest two/three weeks of the year: the Santa Claus Rally or the end of the year effect. We have previously covered this holiday effect in a separate article about the US Santa Claus Rally….
The Thanksgiving and Black Friday effect in the stock market is often mentioned in the news. Is this effect a myth or for real? Is this a good seasonality to be long stocks? The Thanksgiving and Black Friday effects are very strong. We did multiple backtests from 1960 until October 2021 on the S&P 500,…
The fourth quarter is a strong period for stocks. But which five-day period is best? We did a test to find out which calendar days of which month produce the best five-day returns. The best five-day periods to own stocks are in late October, November, and December. The best days are the 27th of October…
The weekday effect in trading can be a handy trading edge because trading is about exploiting small trading edges in the market. If you work hard and diversify with different markets, time frames, strategies, and market directions, you can develop a decent portfolio of strategies that hopefully give you a smooth equity curve. Can the…
The week after options expiration week is after the third Saturday each month. The week before, the options expiration week, is normally a positive week for stocks. How does the stock market perform during the week after options expiration week? Is it possible to develop trading strategies the week after options expiration week? Our backtests…
Seasonal trading strategies The year has four different seasons and the financial markets have seasonal patterns that you can be made into seasonal trading strategies. Seasonal trading refers to seasonal patterns that occur at regular intervals in certain time frames. Let’s call them seasonal trading strategies for simplicity. This article looks at why you should…
The last trading day of the month offers trading opportunities. This is one of many seasonal trading strategies. Can we make a last trading day of the month trading strategy? The last trading day of the month is a weak day in the stock market – the last trading day of the month is a…
