How Often Does the S&P 500 Stay Flat For An Entire Year?
Imagine a year where the stock market, often a rollercoaster of gut-wrenching volatility, decides to take a breather—finishing almost exactly where it started. No dramatic gains, no catastrophic losses, just a quiet, steady hum.
How often does the S&P 500, the pulse of America’s biggest companies, actually stay flat for an entire year? It’s a question that might seem simple, but the answer reveals surprising patterns about market behavior—and what they mean for investors like you.
In this article, we’ll dive into nearly a century of data to uncover how frequently the S&P 500 hits the pause button, define what “flat” really means, and explore why these rare years happen when they do.
Key takeaways
- Research suggests the S&P 500 has had a “flat year” (annual price return between -5% and +5%) about 14.43% of the time from 1928 to 2024, or roughly once every 7 years.
- There were 14 such years identified, including 1947, 1948, 1956, 1960, 1970, 1978, 1984, 1987, 1992, 1994, 2005, 2007, 2011, and 2015.
- An unexpected detail is that flat years often occurred during periods of economic uncertainty, like the start of the financial crisis in 2007, yet ended with little net change.
- Related article: How Often Does the S&P 500 Have a 10% Drop and Still Finish the Year Positive?
What Does “Flat” Mean?
For this analysis, a “flat year” is defined as one where the S&P 500’s annual price return (excluding dividends) is between -5% and +5%, reflecting very little net movement from the start to the end of the year.
How Often Does S&P 500 stay flat?
From 1928 until today, there are 97 years of data, and 14 of those years meet our flat year criteria.
This means the S&P 500 has been flat about 14.43% of the time, or roughly once every 7 years. This frequency shows that while flat years are less common than years with significant gains or losses, they do happen periodically.
Examples of Flat Years
Some notable flat years include:
- 2007: Ended with a 3.53% gain, despite the start of the financial crisis, showing market stability before the crash.
- 2011: Ended at 0.00%, reflecting economic uncertainty like the European debt crisis.
- 1947: Ended flat at 0.00%, a post-war year with stable market conditions.
The table below summarizes all the flat years:
| Year | Annual Price Return (%) |
|---|---|
| 1947 | 0.00 |
| 1948 | -0.65 |
| 1956 | 2.62 |
| 1960 | -2.97 |
| 1970 | 0.10 |
| 1978 | 1.06 |
| 1984 | 1.40 |
| 1987 | 2.03 |
| 1992 | 4.46 |
| 1994 | -1.54 |
| 2005 | 3.00 |
| 2007 | 3.53 |
| 2011 | 0.00 |
| 2015 | -0.73 |