How To Do A Monte Carlo Simulation Using Python – (Example, Code, Setup, Backtest)

Quant strategists employ different tools and systems in their algorithms to improve performance and reduce risk. One is the Monte Carlo simulation, which is quite powerful regarding option pricing or risk management problems. 

A Monte Carlo simulation represents the likelihood of various outcomes in a process that is challenging to predict due to the involvement of random variables. Its primary purpose is to gain insights into the effects of risk and uncertainty.

In this post, we will provide a step-by-step guide for performing a Monte Carlo simulation using Python.

Key takeaways

• Monte Carlo simulation in Python uses random sampling to model and understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and forecasting models.
• In trading, it’s often applied to simulate the various paths an asset’s price might take over time, helping in risk assessment and decision-making.​
• Begin by installing essential Python libraries such as NumPy for numerical operations and Matplotlib for plotting results.
• Determine the initial stock price, the expected return (mean), the volatility (standard deviation), the time horizon, and the number of simulations.
• Use the Geometric Brownian Motion model to simulate possible future paths of the stock price.
• Plot the simulated price paths to visualize potential future movements.
• Evaluate the distribution of the final stock prices to assess the range of possible outcomes.
• By following these steps, you can use Python to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to model and analyze the potential future behavior of stock prices. Please read this article, and we show you all the relevant Monte Carlo simulations in Python code.
• Related reading:- We have many trading strategies for sale
• Please check out our extensive Python trading library.

What is Monte Carlo simulation?

Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted.

It is a method to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in various fields, including investing and trading. The simulation builds a model of possible results by leveraging a probability distribution and recalculates the results over and over using different sets of random numbers to produce a large number of likely outcomes. 

For example, you might have a strategy with 3 variables, and then the Monte Carlo simulation run these huge amounts of simulations where the input is varied. Thus, we can better grasp if the trading strategy is based on luck or randomness or if it’s robust. Monte Carlo also changes the sequence of the returns (resampling), something that is often overlooked. We looked at that in a separate article about sequence risk when investing.

However, we have covered Monte Carlo simulation in trading in a separate article.

Python-related resources

We have written many articles about Python, and you might find these interesting. For example, we have written about how to download data using Python, and how to measure skewness of a trading strategy in Python. We have a pretty good search funtion in the upper right of the website, and you can search among the 2 000 articles we have written thus far.

Should you use Monte Carlo simulation in trading?

It’s a useful tool, but it doesn’t offset the importance of being a street smart trader.

Import libraries and downloading data

The first step is importing the necessary libraries. In this case, they are pandas, numpy, matplotlib, finance, and scipy. If you want to know more about how to download historical stock prices using yfinance check our previous post on how to download data for your trading strategy using Python.

In this example, the company we will use is Apple. We will pull the data since its inception as follows:

We have all the historical open, high, low, close, adjusted close, and volume values for Apple since 1980!

Calculating the logarithmic returns and drift

Next, we need to calculate the logarithmic returns, which is done with the following function from the numpy library(np.log). Note that this equation differs from the usual percentage change formula.

The drift is the expected periodic daily rate of return. The formula is:

Drift = Average Daily Return – (0.5*Variance)

For this, we need to calculate the mean and the variance using the numpy functions as follows:

Then, we create a new variable called drift and use the formula from above. As you can see, the drift of Apple stock is 0.000835.

Generate random variables

In this step, we have to generate random variables for the forecasted day and for every simulation trial we run.

First, we will calculate the standard deviation using the numpy function std().

Now, we must define the number of trials and days we want to forecast. In this case, we will do 50 days and 100 different trails.

Then we generate a matrix which we call Z of shape(days, trials) filled with random numbers sampled from a standard normal distribution. It does so by first calling np.random.rand(days, trials), which generates random values between 0 and 1, and then applies the inverse of the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution(norm.ppf) to transform these random values into numbers that follow a standard normal distribution. 

The code then initializes a new variable called daily_returns and multiplies each value in the Z matrix by the standard deviation and adds the drift. The result is then exponentiated using np.exp to obtain the daily returns.

After this, we initialize an array called price_paths with zeros of the same size as the daily_returns array. The first element of price_paths is Apple’s last closing price. Then, the code runs a loop from the second day up to the fifty day, calculating the price for each subsequent day based on the previous day’s price and the corresponding daily return. 

The multiplication of the previous day’s price with the daily return simulates the price change for each day, considering the random nature of daily returns.

Plot the price paths in Python

Lastly, we have to plot the results. For this, we will use the matplotlib library with just two lines of code:

Here is the output:

Now, we can see the simulated stock prices for the next 50-days of Apple based on the same level of volatility it has historically had. The stock can end up in the range between $342 and $110. The mean value is $198, and because the distribution is normal, there is an equal chance that the stock ends up higher or lower than that.

Advantages and disadvantages of a Monte Carlo Simulation

The Monte Carlo method is a valuable tool for investors to estimate the chances of gaining or losing on an investment.

However, no simulation can precisely predict an exact outcome. The Monte Carlo method strives to provide a more reliable estimate of the probability that an outcome will deviate from a projected value. 

The key distinction from other methods is that the Monte Carlo method involves testing multiple random variables and averaging them rather than starting with an average.

How To Do a Monte Carlo Simulation Using Python – conclusion

To summarize, we learned how to do a Monte Carlo simulation using Python. Although it can’t predict exactly what will happen, it can be a valuable resource to add to your risk management system and better measure risk and outcomes.