Larry Connors’ Multiple Days Up And Multiple Days Down | Trading Strategies Analysis
Chapter 6 of Larry Connors‘ High Probability Trading contains a trading strategy called Multiple Days Up (MDU) And Multiple Days Down (MDD). The book was published in 2009, the trading tests were done until 31st of December 2008, and it’s time to test and check how the strategy has performed since then.
You can find the four previous strategies from Larry Connors, plus many more, on this page:
Here you can find all our Larry Connors Trading Strategies.
The trading rules of the strategy:
The main idea of the strategy is that ETFs revert to their mean. Because ETFs consist of many stocks or holdings, they are unlikely to go to zero. Thus, they should perform better for mean reversion than for single stocks, which can go to zero.
In this strategy, we look to buy when an ETF has dropped 4 out of the last 5 trading days. The trading rules are like this:
Trading Rules
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The results of the Multiple Days Up strategy:
Below are the results for the original 20 ETFs Connors used, and an additional five ETFs we added (results are from the inception of the ETF until December 2020):
| Result by Connors | Average gain since | Profit | ||||
| Average gain in % | inception to Nov.2020 | factor | Difference: | |||
| DIA | 0.17 | 0.19 | 1.36 | 0.02 | ||
| EEM | 0.85 | 0.43 | 1.66 | -0.42 | ||
| EFA | 0.73 | 0.52 | 2.24 | -0.21 | ||
| EWH | 0.62 | 0.17 | 1.1 | -0.45 | ||
| EWJ | 0.56 | 0.21 | 1.2 | -0.35 | ||
| EWT | 0.02 | 0.09 | 1.1 | 0.07 | ||
| EWZ | 1.45 | 1.13 | 3.09 | -0.32 | ||
| FXI | 0.88 | 0.22 | 1.19 | -0.66 | ||
| GLD | 0 | 0.35 | 1.67 | 0.35 | ||
| ILF | 1.04 | 0.98 | 2.71 | -0.06 | ||
| IWM | 0.44 | 0.36 | 1.64 | -0.08 | ||
| IYR | -0.17 | 0.03 | 1.08 | 0.2 | ||
| QQQ | 0.76 | 0.54 | 2.01 | -0.22 | ||
| SPY | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.98 | -0.1 | ||
| XHB | 0.48 | 0.75 | 2.55 | 0.27 | ||
| XLB | 0.33 | 0.29 | 1.42 | -0.04 | ||
| XLE | 0.92 | 0.39 | 1.47 | -0.53 | ||
| XLF | 0.11 | 0.47 | 2.04 | 0.36 | ||
| XLI | 0.3 | 0.31 | 1.71 | 0.01 | ||
| XLV | 0.31 | 0.41 | 2.07 | 0.1 | ||
| ETFs not | ||||||
| included: | ||||||
| GDX | 0.38 | 1.31 | ||||
| GDXJ | 1.22 | 1.93 | ||||
| TLT | 0.22 | 1.47 | ||||
| XLP | 0.24 | 1.57 | ||||
| XME | 0.69 | 1.6 |
The last five ETFs were not part of Connors’ original test.
How does the strategy perform as a portfolio?
Most traders don’t tradie just one instrument, so let’s test how the strategy performs as a portfolio.
The simulation is done by having a maximum of five open positions at any time, which equals 20% of the equity for each position. This also means the capital is frequently in cash. The portfolio is simulated from the year 2000 until December 2020, and the capital is compounded (no commissions or slippage).
The equity curve looks like this:
The results can be summarized like this:
- CAGR: 6.4%
- The number of trades: 2210
- Exposure: 28.5%
- The profit factor: 1.46
- Average gain per trade: 0.31%
- Maximum drawdown: 14.5%
Compared to the other four mean reversion strategies from Connors, this one has the lowest profit factor. Several of the ETFs are most likely not suited for mean reversion, so the results can be improved.
The results in SPY and QQQ:
If we change the strategy to only trade SPY and QQQ, having 50% of the equity in each position, we get this compounded equity curve:
There are 287 trades, the profit factor is 1.82, the max drawdown is 12%, and the CAGR is only 2.4%. The low CAGR can partly be explained by the low time spent in the market: 7.7%.
How does the strategy perform on the short side
Short is always much more difficult than the long side. The reason is that stock indices have a positive tailwind overnight:
As a portfolio of a maximum of five positions the equity curve looks like this (only shorts):
This is not tradeable, of course. If we change to only trade SPY and QQQ (having max two positions), we get this equity curve:
Much of the gain happened in 2008, but still the results are surprisingly good: the win ratio is 65% and the average gain is 0.68%.
Larry Connors’ other trading strategies
Here you can find all our Larry Connors Trading Strategies.
Larry Connors’ Multiple Days Up And Multiple Days Down video
Multiple days up (MDU) and multiple days down (MDD) – conclusion:
Common for all strategies is that you can’t expect them to perform well on all asset classes. Each ETF has its own distinct features, and you must tweak (without data mining) to find what works on each. Hence, the Multiple Up Days and Multiple Down Days strategy can most likely be improved. Moreover, optimization is likely to gain some more insights into the strategy.
FAQ:
What is Larry Connors’ Multiple Days Up (MDU) and Multiple Days Down (MDD) trading strategy?
Larry Connors’ MDU and MDD strategy is outlined in Chapter 6 of his book “High Probability Trading.” It focuses on mean reversion, buying when an ETF has dropped 4 out of the last 5 trading days and certain conditions are met, and selling when the ETF closes above its 5-day moving average.
How do the trading rules of the MDU and MDD strategy work?
The strategy involves buying when an ETF meets specific criteria, including being above the 200-day moving average, below the 5-day moving average, and having dropped at least 4 days out of the last 5 trading days. The sell signal occurs when the ETF closes above its 5-day moving average, and there’s no stop-loss.
What were the results of the MDU strategy on various ETFs?
Results for the MDU strategy on 20 ETFs, along with additional ones, were provided. The results included average gains, profit factors, and differences in performance. Some ETFs may not be suited for mean reversion, suggesting potential for improvement.