SPY Sets Low or High in the Last Hour – An Intriguing Day Trading Strategy

ByOddmund Groette Day Trading

I have previously written two articles about when SPY sets high and low during the day:

spy-sets-low-or-high

I’m trying to find something tradeable out of these simple numbers but it’s not easy. However, the “boring” buying on weakness and selling on strength seems to work pretty well. Entry is at the open next day and exit is at 1130 the same day (only day trades). Buying on the close gives approximately the same results. However, drawdowns are a lot bigger. So using this approach you don’t get paid for holding overnight (from yesterday’s close).

Here are some results from January 2010 until August 2012:

Long:

Accumulated in % #fills #wins Avg.
Low last hour longs 15.92 136 78 0.117
Low last hour and opens up next day 2.92 77 41 0.038
Low last hour and opens down next day 13 59 37 0.220
Low last hour and down day 9.51 112 62 0.085
Low last hour and up day 6.41 24 16 0.267
 Short:
Accumulated in % #fills #wins Avg.
High last hour shorts 9.4 187 92 0.050
High last hour and opens up next day 5.42 96 49 0.056
High last hour and opens down next day 3.2 89 41 0.036
High last hour and down day 1.2 27 15 0.044
High last hour and up day 8.21 160 77 0.051

I have also tried with targets and stop-loss, but with no improvement at all, rather the opposite.

The equity curve for all trades going long if low is in the last hour and going short if high is in the last hour looks like this:

highlow last hour

FAQ:

– What is the key takeaway from the analysis regarding buying on weakness and selling on strength?

The primary takeaway is that this “boring” trading strategy appears to work well. It involves entering long or short positions based on SPY’s performance during the last hour of trading.

– Are there variations in the strategy based on different trading scenarios?

Yes, the content provides insights into different scenarios, such as buying or shorting based on the last hour’s performance and the market’s direction the next day (up or down).

– Are there specific results or performance metrics shared for these trading strategies?

Yes, the content presents results, including accumulated returns, the number of trades (fills), the number of winning trades, and average returns for various trading scenarios.

I’ve got an Msc from Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh (1996), in addition a to a business administration degree the Norwegian School of Management (BI – 1994). Did my mandatory military service in between.

After university, I worked two years as an auditor (1996-1998).

I co-founded Aksjeforum.com in 1998/99 - one of the first websites about trading and investing in Norway. It was later acquired by Digi.no in 2001.

I have written 4 books about trading (in Norwegian). One of them has sold 30,000 copies, a record for a financial book in Norway.

From 2001 until 2018 full-time independent prop trader (Series 7 in 2001) and investor.

2018-today: Investor, writer, analyst.

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