USDCAD Forex Trading Strategy - Rules, Backtest, Returns, Performance

In the forex market, there are many currency pairs you can trade, and the USDCAD trading pair is one of the most actively traded. With the right trading strategy, you can get the best out of this major currency pair. But do you have a USDCAD trading strategy?

A USDCAD trading strategy is your approach to trading the USDCAD currency pair. It’s a rule-based system that specifies when to trade the currency pair, the market conditions that must be met, the entry setup that triggers you into a trade, position sizing, risk management, and exit criteria. To win in the forex market, you need a robust strategy for the market you are trading.

In this post, we take a look at the USDCAD currency pair, what it is, the factors that affect it, when and how to trade it, and many more. Read on!

Related reading:

Please also look at our best forex trading strategies.

We go straight to the Forex trading strategy. This is a backtested trading strategy.

Table of contents:

USD CAD Forex Trading Strategy

The trading rules read like this (members can unlock the trading rules and get trading rules for hundreds of trading strategies):

THIS SECTION IS FOR MEMBERS ONLY. _________________ BECOME A MEBER TO GET ACCESS TO TRADING RULES IN ALL ARTICLES

CLICK HERE TO SEE ALL 350 ARTICLES WITH TRADING RULES

We backtested by using free historical data from Yahoo finance. The ticker code is YF: “CAD=X”

When we apply the trading rules to the dataset, we get the following equity curve:

The trading statistics and performance metrics are like this:

CAGR was 3.16% vs. 0.27% for Buy and Hold
Time spent in the market 48.62%
Risk-adjusted return 6.49%
Maximum drawdown -18.57% vs. -34.18% for Buy and Hold

Is the strategy just luck or randomness? To find out we use an optimization backtest to see how much the results vary depending on the parameters.

USDCAD Forex trading strategy code

We end the backtest by showing you the complete Python code:

THIS SECTION IS FOR MEMBERS ONLY. _________________ BECOME A MEBER TO GET ACCESS TO TRADING RULES IN ALL ARTICLES

CLICK HERE TO SEE ALL 350 ARTICLES WITH TRADING RULES

Another heavily traded forex pair is the eurusd trading strategy and the EURCAD strategy.

If you want to trade forex, you might want to check out eToro.*

What is USDCAD?

USDCAD is a currency pair that indicates the exchange rate of the United States dollar (USD) against the Canadian dollar (CAD). The value of this exchange rate indicates how many Canadian dollars you would need to purchase one US dollar. For instance, if the USDCAD is trading at 1.3500, it means that you would need 1.35 Canadian dollars to exchange 1 US dollar.

Currency pairs are often categorized into major, minor, and exotic pairs. Since USDCAD is a pair between two major world currencies — the US dollar, which is the world’s most traded currency, and the Canadian dollar, which is the world’s seventh most traded currency — it is considered a major currency pair.

The USDCAD is also one of the three so-called “commodity pairs” alongside the AUDUSD and NZDUSD because their exchange rates are highly correlated to fluctuations in the commodity market — in the case of USDCAD, the crude oil market.

What does USDCAD mean?

USDCAD means the ticker symbol (market code) for the USD/CAD currency pair, which is the exchange rate market between the USD and the CAD in the forex trading markets. The code on trading platforms and brokers’ websites represents the exchange rate of the USD against the CAD.

In this arrangement, the USD is the base currency because it is the first currency code in the currency pair and, as such, is the one whose value is quoted in the second currency. The CAD, on the other hand, is the quote or counter currency in the currency pair because it is the second currency in the pair and is used to determine the value of the base currency.

When to trade USDCAD?

The right time to trade USDCAD depends on your trading style. If you are a swing trader or position trader, the right time of the day or the trading session doesn’t matter because you would hold your position for many days, weeks, or months.

But if you’re a day trader or scalper, you may want to trade the pair when the US and Canadian markets are open. That is during the US trading session, which is from around 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM New York Time. This is when you will get the best liquidity and volatility in the market.

What does USD mean?

USD means the United States dollar, which is the official currency of the United States of America. In the USDCAD currency pair, it is the first currency code, so it is the base currency. This means that it is the currency whose value is quoted in Canadian dollars.

What does CAD mean?

CAD means the Canadian dollar, which is the official currency of Canada. In the USDCAD currency pair, it is the second currency code, so it is regarded as the quote or counter currency. This means that it is the currency that is used to determine the value of the United States dollar.

How to trade Forex USDCAD?

To trade Forex USDCAD, there are various ways you can participate in the USDCAD exchange rate market. One common one, especially if you’re in North America (US or Canada), is to trade USDCAD futures contracts. You will need to open an account with a futures broker and trade on the futures exchanges like the CME and ICE.

Another option is to trade USDCAD futures options. USDCAD options offers you the right (but you’re not obligated to exercise the right) to buy or sell USDCAD contracts at a chosen price at some point in the future. You can trade these via options platforms and exchanges like the CME Group.

If you’re in Europe, Asia, or Africa, an easy way to trade USDCAD is through CFD brokers. A CFD (contract for difference) is a contract between you and the broker to exchange the difference in the value of an instrument between the time a trade is opened and the time it is closed.

How to calculate USDCAD pips?

To calculate USDCAD pips, you have to subtract the current price level from the previous price level. For USDCAD, the pip is represented by the fourth decimal place. The fifth decimal place is referred to as a point or pipette. For example, if USDCAD moves from 1.38000 to 1.38080, it has risen by 8 pips or 80 points (80 pipettes). And if it moves from 1.38080 to 1.38030, it has fallen by 5 pips or 50 points.

Since 0.0001 represents a 1-pip change in the USDCAD currency pair, the value of one pip is calculated by multiplying the trade size (or lot size) by 0.0001. But the value would be in CAD, which is the quote currency. To get the pip value in USD, you have to divide it by the current exchange rate.

For example, if the current USDCAD exchange rate is 1.38000, the pip value of a standard lot size contract ($100,000) would be (100,000 x 0.0001)/1.38000 = 7.2464 USD.

What time does USDCAD open?

On the CME Globex platform where USDCAD futures (CAD/USD) are traded, the market opens from Sunday to Friday from 6:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. New York Time (5:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. CT) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 5:00 p.m. NewYork Time (4:00 p.m. CT).

As a CFD instrument, USDCAD can be traded almost 24hrs each day via CFD broker’s platforms like MT4 and MT5.

What is USDCAD trading?

USDCAD trading is the process of buying the USD with CAD or selling the USD to get CAD. Businesses that are involved in international trade between the US and Canada may engage in USDCAD trading for business or hedging purposes. For retail and institutional traders, USDCAD trading is done for speculating on the exchange rate of the USD against the CAD.

Will USDCAD go up or down?

USDCAD will go up or down depending on the demand and supply of the component currencies against each other. To know when USDCAD would go up or down, you have to learn the fundamental factors that affect the demand and supply of the component currencies, as well as learn how to analyze the price charts to know when the price is likely to start moving up or down.

What session is best to trade USDCAD?

The best session to trade USDCAD is the US trading session, which is from around 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM New York Time. This is the time when the US and Canadian markets are open. With major businesses transacting and exchanging currencies during this time, the US trading session offers the best liquidity and volatility in the USDCAD market. As such, the spread is normally lower during this period compared to other trading sessions and the price movements are bigger, providing opportunities for bigger profits.

Is USDCAD a good pair to trade?

USDCAD can be a good pair to trade depending on whether you have the right strategy to trade it at the time you’re trading it. But generally, being one of the major currency pairs, USDCAD is always one of the pairs with good liquidity and small spreads. The liquidity and small spread make it a good pair to trade. If you’re also good at keeping tabs on the commodity markets, especially oil, you may find USDCAD interesting to trade.

What economic indicators affect a USDCAD trading strategy?

Economic indicators that affect USDCAD trading strategy include:

the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada
unemployment rate reports in the US and Canada
wages reports
inflation rates as reported in CPI and PCE
the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates
international trade agreements, tariffs, and duties
political events like elections, and much more.

How do Fed policies influence a USDCAD trading strategy?

Fed’s policies do influence a USDCAD trading strategy, as they can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. For instance, when the Fed alters its interest rate, it could change the interest rate differential between the Fed and the Bank of Canada, which will, in turn, affect the demand and supply of the currencies, leading to significant price movements.

Which chart patterns predict USDCAD price movements?

Many different chart patterns can predict USDCAD price movements. Some common chart patterns that traders use to predict price movements include the head and shoulder pattern and its inverse, double tops and bottoms, rectangles, triangles, falling and rising wedges, flags, and pennants. The key is to know the pattern that works during the specific market condition you’re trading.

What technical indicators are best for USDCAD trading?

The technical indicators that are best for USDCAD trading depend on your USDCAD trading strategy. Different technical indicators can work well when used the right way. For example, RSI or Bollinger Bands can be used to formulate a mean-reversion strategy, while a moving average indicator can be used to formulate a trend-following strategy.

How do US-Canada trade relations impact USDCAD strategy?

US-Canada trade relations can impact a USDCAD strategy in a great way. First, the US and Canada are geographical neighbors, and as such, there is a lot of trade between the two countries. So, whenever there’s a new trade policy or bilateral trade talks, the USDCAD tends to respond to such news with huge price movements.

Can political changes alter a USDCAD trading strategy?

Yes, political changes can alter a USDCAD trading strategy because such events create uncertainties in the market, causing significant price movements. Examples of such political changes are presidential and congressional elections, the emergence of a new president, and the passing of important bills in the House and the Parliaments. You should always consider key political events when deploying a USDCAD trading strategy.

What role does trader psychology play in USDCAD trading?

Trader psychology plays a significant role in USDCAD trading. It doesn’t matter whether your USDCAD trading strategy is manual or algorithmic, you need to have the right trading mindset to succeed in USDCAD trading. It’s your trading psychology that determines how well you implement a profitable strategy to make it profitable.

How does market sentiment affect a USDCAD strategy?

Market sentiment can affect a USDCAD strategy, as it reflects investors’ and traders’ risk appetite and how they behave in situations of extreme uncertainty. For instance, when there is a huge global event like the COVID-19 pandemic, investors rush to safe-haven assets, such as the USD. This would lead to an increased demand for the USD, causing it to appreciate against the CAD.

What leverage guidelines exist for USDCAD trading?

The leverage guideline that exists for USDCAD trading depends on the nature of the market you’re trading. Currency futures often offer about 5-10x leverage, while CFDs can offer over 100x leverage depending on the regulation in the country where you are trading from.

How are stop-loss orders used in USDCAD trading?

In USDCAD trading, stop-loss orders are used to manage risks. You can use a stop-loss order to limit the risk in a trade to only the amount of money you wish to risk in the trade. To achieve that, you have to use both a stop-loss order and position sizing. If you already know the size of your stop-loss order from the chart, you can use it to calculate your position size from the amount you intend to risk. Here’s the formula:

Position size = Amount to risk/(Stop Loss in pips X Pip Value)

What algorithms work best with a USDCAD trading strategy?

The algorithms that work best with a USDCAD trading strategy are the ones you created based on an already-identified edge in the USDCAD market. Algorithms only offer automated trading. If the logic they are based on does not have an edge with positive profit expectancy, they will only end up losing moving.

What is the significance of USDCAD in forex trading?

The significance of USDCAD in forex trading is huge: USDCAD is about the 5^th most traded currency pair. Thus, it is considered a major pair, alongside USDCHF, USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD. These, together with USDCNY, account for most of the forex transactions around the world.

How does the exchange rate affect USDCAD trading?

The exchange rate of USDCAD is the quoted price on the USDCAD trading chart. It represents the quantity of CAD required to exchange 1 USD. In order words, when the quoted price of the USDCAD is rising, it means that the USD is gaining over the CAD and, thus, would require more CAD to buy 1 USD. Conversely, when the price of the USD/CAD is falling, the value of CAD is increasing in comparison to the USD and would require less CAD to exchange 1 USD.

What factors influence fluctuations in the USDCAD pair?

Many factors influence fluctuations in the USDCAD pair, including fundamental and technical factors, as well as market sentiments. Some of the fundamental factors that influence the USDCAD pair are:

the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada
unemployment rate reports in the US and Canada
wages reports
money supply and the printing of money by the Fed
inflation rates as reported in CPI and PCE
the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates
international trade agreements
balance of payments
political events like elections, and much more.

Explain the concept of currency pairs in the forex market

In the forex market, the concept of currency pair means that currencies are traded in pairs. A currency pair shows the price quote of the exchange rate of one currency against the other currency. That is, the value of one currency is determined and quoted in another currency. The first currency code in a currency pair is called the base currency because it is one whose value is being determined. The second currency is called the quote currency because it is used to quote the value of the base currency.

What distinguishes major currency pairs like USDCAD?

What distinguishes major currency pairs like USDCAD is the fact that they have the USD as one of the currencies in the pair. Major currency pairs are currency pairs derived from a combination of the USD and the currency of any of the other 7 major modern economies.

How do traders profit from trading USDCAD?

Traders profit from trading USDCAD by buying when the exchange rate is low and selling when the exchange rate is high. It’s just that simple. What is not easy though is how to know when “low” is low enough to buy and when “high” is high enough to sell. For that, they use some technical analysis and fundamental analysis to make that judgment.

What role does the forex market play in currency conversion?

The forex market plays a huge role in currency conversion. It provides a ready market for anyone who wishes to convert one currency into another. In other words, the availability of a robust forex market ensures adequate liquidity for multinational businesses who wish to make use of currency conversion for business or hedging purposes.

Can you define “pip” and its relevance to USDCAD trading?

A pip is an acronym for price interest point. It is a unit of measurement to express a very small change in value between two currencies. In USDCAD trading, the pip is represented by the fourth decimal place since USDCAD is quoted in four or five decimal places. The fifth decimal place, when present, is referred to as a pipette.

For example, if USDCAD moves from 1.38000 to 1.38080, it has risen by 8 pips or 80 pipettes. And if it moves from 1.38080 to 1.38030, it has fallen by 5 pips or 50 pipettes.

What are cross currency pairs, and how do they differ?

Cross currency pairs are tradable currency pairs that do not include the USD as one of the currencies in the pair. A cross currency pair is derived by simultaneously buying and selling equivalent quantities of two USD-containing currency pairs. For example, simultaneously buying and selling AUDUSD and USDJPY would give a cross pair called AUDJPY.

How does forex trading impact global finance and economies?

Forex trading impacts global finance and economies by bringing structure to currency conversion for international trade settlements and investments. The forex market is made up of central banks, commercial banks, investment management firms, hedge funds, retail forex dealers, and investors. It facilitates global finance and trading.

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