How Long Does It Take for Stocks to Bottom?
When the stock market takes a nosedive, panic sets in fast. Portfolios bleed red, headlines scream doom, and every investor wants to know: How long will this last? How long does it take for stocks to hit bottom—that critical point where the freefall stops and stability begins to peek through the chaos?
History offers answers, and they’re both sobering and perhaps hopeful. Drawing from nearly a century of S&P 500 data, from the Great Depression until today, we can map out how long it typically takes for stocks to find their known floor (in hindsight). (We have previously covered how long does it take for stocks to recover.)
The Historical Timeline: From Crash to Bottom
We need to look at the past to understand how long stocks take to bottom. The S&P 500, a benchmark for U.S. market performance, has weathered plenty of storms since 1929.
Each crash—whether a quick dip or a prolonged collapse—tells us something about the journey to the bottom.
Here’s a table summarizing 15 major declines from 1929 to 2018, showing the peak year, the percentage drop, and the time it took to hit rock bottom:
| Year of Peak | Drop from Peak (%) | Years to Bottom |
|---|---|---|
| 1929 | -86.2% | 3 |
| 1937 | -54.5% | 1 |
| 1946 | -26.6% | 1 |
| 1956 | -21.6% | 1 |
| 1961 | -27.9% | 1 |
| 1968 | -36.1% | 2 |
| 1973 | -48.2% | 2 |
| 1980 | -27.1% | 1 |
| 1987 | -33.5% | 0 (3 months) |
| 1990 | -19.9% | 0 (3 months) |
| 2000 | -49.1% | 2 |
| 2007 | -56.8% | 2 |
| 2011 | -19.4% | 0 (4 months) |
| 2015 | -12.4% | 0 (2 months) |
| 2018 | -19.8% | 0 (3 months) |
The 1929 crash, triggered by the Great Depression, saw an 86.2% plunge and took three grueling years to bottom out. Compare that to 1987’s Black Monday—a 33.5% drop that stabilized in just three months.
The dot-com bust in 2000 and the 2007 financial crisis both exceeded 49%, and each took two years to find its lows—conversely, more minor dips like 2015’s 12.4% drop bottomed in two months.
What’s the takeaway? Let’s look at numbers from the website Of Dollars And Data and look at the median time to form a known bottom:
| Median years | |
| Drawdown % | Peak to known bottom |
| 10 | 0.3 |
| 20 | 0.6 |
| 30 | 0.9 |
| 40 | 1.4 |
| 50 | 2 |
The market hits a bottom relatively fast, with a median ranging from 0.3 to 2 years. Obviously, the deeper the fall, the longer it takes to form.
However, this is in hindsight. Unfortunately, you don’t know the depth of the drawdown – only after the fact!
What Influences the Bottoming Process?
Why do some crashes bottom out so quickly while others linger?
The answer lies in the forces driving the decline—and the market’s response. Smaller drops, like 1987 or 2011, often stem from short-term shocks—think a sudden sell-off or a geopolitical flare-up.
These tend to stabilize fast as panic subsides and bargain hunters step in. The 1987 crash, for instance, was a technical meltdown amplified by program trading, but the economy itself wasn’t in shambles, so the bottom came swiftly.
Contrast that with the heavy hitters: 1929, 2000, 2007. These were tied to massive structural problems—collapsing banks, bursting tech bubbles, or a housing market implosion.
When the damage is deep and widespread, it takes longer for confidence to return and for the market to stop sliding.
The 1929 bottom took three years because the entire economy was unraveling, with no quick fix in sight.
The 2007-2009 plunge, fueled by a global financial crisis, needed two years and massive government intervention to stabilize.
The lesson might be this: The bigger the mess, the longer the wait. A 20% correction might sting, but it’s often a blip. A 50%+ bear market? That’s a marathon, testing even your nerves and gut.
What This Means for Investors Today
So, how can you use this? If you’re staring down a falling market, this historical lens offers both caution and comfort.
On average, expect about 1 to 2 years for stocks to bottom out—longer if it’s a brutal decline, shorter if it’s a shallow dip.
Patience is key and a long-term mindset. Every crash in the table above hit bottom eventually—and every one was followed by recovery. The question isn’t if the market will bottom—it’s when (barring revolutions or nationalization). And history suggests that if you can weather a year or two of turbulence, you’re likely to see the light at the end.
Of course, no two crashes are identical. Today’s triggers—be it inflation, tech bubbles, or global unrest—could shift the timeline. But armed with this data, you’re hopefully not flying blind. Next time the market tanks, ask yourself: Can I hold on for a year? Two? Because odds are, that’s when the bottom starts to form—and the recovery begins to whisper.