Seasonal Holiday Strategy
Learn all about seasonal holiday strategy to capitalize on recurring calendar-based market trends.
Learn all about seasonal holiday strategy to capitalize on recurring calendar-based market trends.
Today, we show you a simple strategy that uses 2x leverage to beat buy-and-hold with the same drawdown. S&P 500 2x Leveraged Strategy The trading rules we backtested return the following equity curve (the rules are at the bottom of…
The strategy we show today is a defensive trading strategy between stocks, bonds, and gold. The strategy aims not to make the biggest return, but to reduce drawdown. We do this by including bonds and gold. These two assets often…
Today, we’ll show you one of the rare short strategies for the S&P 500. We backtest the strategy back to 1960, and it has worked consistently since then. That, of course, doesn’t guarantee it will continue being profitable. A Rare…
Let’s show you a very simple strategy combining mean reversion and trend following to give you a backtested result of 12% per year. Combining Mean Reversion And Trend Following Combined, the two types of strategies returned the following result for…
Today, for the first time, we are publishing a futures strategy called EURO STOXX 50 Futures Pullback Setup. EURO STOXX 50 Futures Pullback Setup We start with a screenshot: The equity curve of all the trades looks like this: The…
A second income stream now runs beside ETH price moves. Staking rewards, ETF restructurings, and treasury allocations each feed into it, and each one alters how a trade gets built. Proof-of-stake created a second return stream alongside price appreciation, and…
Today, we show you an oil stock reversal strategy based on the ETF with the ticker code XLE. XLE tracks the energy sector. The biggest holdings are Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips. However, oil service stocks are also included, such as…
Today, we look at a 2x leverage ETF strategy. The aim of the strategy is to mitigate the risk of owning a 2x leverage ETF strategy. This strategy exploits the negative correlation between broad equity indexes (SSO) and long-term treasury…
Today’s article shows you 2 simple mean reversion trading strategies you can backtest today. 2 Simple Mean Reversion Trading Strategies Let’s go to the strategies. We start with strategy 1: Larry Connors %B Strategy The %B strategy is built on…
Today, we look at a strategy we have called deep pullback strategy. It’s a mean-reversion strategy, but with a longer time frame than is typical for stock mean-reversion strategies. Deep Pullback Strategy Strategy type: Mean reversion (pullback). Market: S&P 500…
Today, we are looking at a strategy that we call trend following strategy with a VIX twist. We found this in Alpha Architect’s database. However, we made a twist to it. Can VIX (implied volatility) be used to improve a…
Today, we look at 2 price action strategies. One is for stocks (SPY), and one is for gold (GLD). What is price action? In simple terms, price action means analyzing what the price itself is doing and using that information…
One of the most overlooked questions in trading is also one of the most important: Which market should you trade? Traders often devote enormous attention to indicators, entry signals, position sizing, and trading psychology. All of these matter, but the…
Today, we look at 2 historically profitable trend-following strategies that has returned at least 12% annually. Trend following is a great tool for diversifying away from mean-reverting strategies. Below, we show you 2 examples of such strategies. 2 Historically Profitable…
Today, we backtest a classic Donchian Breakout Strategy. This is a trend-following approach designed to capture strong price moves as they break beyond recent highs or lows. By using Donchian Channels to identify potential breakout points, the strategy aims to…
3 Market Timing Models That Improve Investment Returns explores a simple idea: investors don’t necessarily need to predict every market top and bottom to improve their results; they just need a disciplined way to recognize when the odds are becoming…
A Rules-Based Momentum Strategy is a systematic approach to responding to shifts in market leadership without relying on predictions or short-term noise. By following a consistent process, the strategy aims to keep portfolio decisions disciplined and repeatable and to take…
A Simple Monthly Asset Rotation Strategy explores a disciplined way to shift capital toward stronger-performing assets while avoiding unnecessary trading. The approach is systematic, easy to follow, and suitable for investors who prefer to make decisions on a monthly schedule…
Today, we show you an ETF trend-following strategy based on the paper by Carlo Zarattini and Gary Antonacci titled “A Century of Profitable Trends.” We made trading rules as close to the original paper as possible and backtested them on…
Commission-based pricing can make traders more aware of what each trade costs. Instead of seeing every charge folded into a wider spread, you can review the spread and commission as separate parts of the transaction. That clarity can help, especially…
Details matter in trading, and today we show you 2 simple trading rules to improve your performance. Let’s start with the first one: 200-Day Moving Average Trend Following This simple trading rule can make you money (according to Paul Tudor…
The RSI pullback strategy is a simple way to look for short-term buying opportunities during an existing uptrend. Instead of buying after prices have already moved higher, the strategy waits for a temporary decline. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI,…
Today, we look at how to profit from market pullbacks: 2 mean reversion strategies. Markets rarely move in a straight line. Even during strong trends, prices often pull back before continuing higher. Mean reversion strategies try to take advantage of…
2 IBS Indicator Strategies That Exploit Short-Term Reversals examines how a simple but little-known indicator can help identify short-term overbought and oversold conditions. What Is The IBS Indicator? IBS stands for Internal Bar Strength and measures where the closing price…
Today, we look at 2 different RSI strategies. The strategies are called the Normalized RSI strategy and RSI-based range momentum system. The Relative Strength Index, better known as RSI, is one of the most widely used indicators in trading. However,…
Today, we look at a trading strategy we call the rate-of-return momentum strategy. Rate-of-Return Momentum Strategy The backtested strategy returned the following results (after slippage and commissions of 0.03% per trade): Strategy type: Momentum strategy. Market: S&P 500 Momentum Index…
Erik Smolinski’s Background and Track Record Erik Smolinski’s journey into the financial world began far from the trading floor. Raised by a single mother who worked as an occupational therapist, he grew up in a low-income household where he worked…
Many traders dream of quitting their jobs and trading for a living. But for most people, this dream does not survive a simple look at the numbers. Suppose you need $75,000 a year to support yourself and your family (unless…
Many readers have indicated they like to rotate between assets. Thus, we compile an article called how to rotate between assets: 3 backtested strategies. Markets rarely move in the same direction at the same time. While one asset class is…
Today, we look at 3 trend following strategies. Trend following is simple in theory: buy when prices move higher and exit when the trend weakens. The challenge is finding rules that are robust enough to work across different markets and…
This article looks at 3 technical indicator strategies that work. Indicators are often dismissed as unreliable or overly simplistic. And in many cases, that criticism is justified. An indicator alone does not create a profitable trading strategy, and almost any…
You have probably experienced the following: You crush it for a week with Strategy A – three green days in a row, confidence through the roof. Then a couple of losers hit, and suddenly you’re on Reddit hunting for Strategy…
Today, we show you a trend-following and mean-reversion strategy – combined. Trend following and mean reversion are often presented as two opposing ways to trade. Trend-following strategies assume that price movements can continue in the same direction. They attempt to capture…
Today, we backtest a multi-asset trend-following strategy. Instead of trying to predict which asset class will perform best, the strategy follows price trends across several markets. When an asset is rising and showing strength, the strategy can be invested. When…
Today, we backtest a Donchian Trend-Following Strategy. Trend following is one of the oldest and most tested ideas in trading. Instead of trying to buy cheap or predict turning points, a trend following strategy tries to do something much simpler:…
Let’s look at a century of US stock returns*. Most investors know the long-term story of the US stock market. Stocks go up over time. But that simple sentence hides a lot of pain, patience, luck, and uncertainty. Looking at…
(Source) Even without a physical exchange floor, Ethereum’s price action still follows the same kind of ‘rhythm’ you’ll associate with it, because (mostly) conventional hours are still in place, and a large share of the volume comes from desks, funds,…
Today, we are looking at yield vs. stock strategy. The relationship between bond yields and stock market returns is one of the most important connections in financial markets. Let’s look at the theory: In theory, higher yields should make stocks…
Bid-ask spread and slippage can erode the profits made from trend-following strategies. This guide explains the mechanism and how you can maximize profits. Measuring transaction drag in systematic trend following The bid-ask spread and slippage are two major factors that…
Sweepstakes casinos run on two currencies. Gold Coins are for play and can never be redeemed. Sweeps Coins can be redeemed for cash or gift cards and cannot be bought. That split is the whole model, and it’s where the…
Chainlink price activity is attracting attention as volatility continues to shape cryptocurrency markets. LINK remains a major digital asset by market capitalisation, while changes in its price, trading volume and liquidity provide traders with signals about shifting market conditions. For…
Today, we look at a seasonal strategy for bonds. We backtest TLT. Are bonds boring? Bonds are often seen as boring, but boring markets can still offer useful trading edges. This strategy focuses on TLT, the ETF that tracks long-term…
Today, we look at a new high strategy for the stock market. This strategy is more like a pullback strategy, thus it offers great diversification benefits for a portfolio of strategies. We first published this strategy on our website about…
Today, we look at a rotation strategy for SPY, EEM, EFA, TLT, and GLD. The basic idea is that assets showing positive relative momentum have a tendency to continue outperforming over intermediate time horizons, while assets with poor momentum may…
Today, we discuss a price compression trading strategy. Markets often move from quiet periods to active periods. This simple observation is the foundation of many breakout strategies. When price movement becomes unusually narrow, it can signal that buyers and sellers…
Today, we look at something we have called the new low trading strategy. Markets spend most of their time making noise. Prices move up, down, and sideways, and most traders are tempted to react to every small fluctuation. But some…
The Russell 2000 Rebalancing Trading Strategy is a method that takes advantage of the abnormal outperformance of the Russell 2000 index during its annual rebalancing at the end of June. Traders buy on the close of the first trading day…
Today, we present a mean reversion strategy with a seasonal filter. Mean reversion assumes that prices often stretch too far in one direction and eventually snap back toward a more “normal” level. But there is a problem. A dip-buying strategy…
Today, we look at a pullback strategy for the S&P 500. Pullbacks are among the most common price patterns in the stock market. Instead of chasing a stock after it has already moved sharply, a pullback strategy waits for the…
Earnings seasons, the quarterly periods when companies release financial results, are known for sparking market volatility. Occurring in January, April, July, and October, these seasons are closely watched by investors aiming to capitalize on price movements. But can these periods…
A global payments giant runs a Solana validator now, changing the risk backdrop behind every technical signal on your screen. This article walks that chain in order: what MoneyGram actually did, what it means for the risk you’re carrying, and…
Usually, timing strategies generate a lot of false signals that cause traders to lose money. To avoid that, today we will look at a strategy that does not generate false signals and can successfully predict the end of a bear…
Today, we are backtesting a simple stock market rotation strategy. Over months, the difference between U.S. stocks, developed international stocks, and emerging markets can be substantial. Sometimes the S&P 500 dominates. At other times, international markets take the lead. And…
Today, we look at a momentum strategy for stocks, bonds, and gold. Instead of trying to predict the next market move, this strategy follows what the market is already telling us. The Momentum Strategy for Stocks, Bonds, and Gold ranks…
Many traders secretly feel embarrassed about trading small size. They believe small positions are for beginners. They think they need to trade bigger to be taken seriously, to make meaningful money, or to prove they have confidence. But this mindset…
One of the most persistent stock market tendencies has been the tue turn-of-the-month effect. The idea is straightforward: stock returns have historically tended to cluster around the final trading days of the month and the first few trading days of…
Many traders spend years obsessing over mindset and risk management. While these are important, they are often used as a distraction from a harsher reality: If your strategy lacks a statistical edge (positive expectancy), you probably won’t make money regardless…
(Image by drobotdean on Magnific) Most published day trading strategies are descriptions rather than results. They specify entry conditions in enough detail to sound rigorous, leave exits vague, omit costs entirely, and present a handful of illustrative chart examples selected…
Today, we look at what the eighth wonder of trading is – compounding returns (the eighth wonder presumably said by Albert Einstein). Most traders focus on entries, exits, win rates, and indicators. But sometimes the biggest difference in long-term returns…
Today, we look at the Bullish Harami – a small candle with big reversal potential. The bullish harami is one of those quieter signals: a two-candle pattern that suggests selling pressure may be weakening and buyers could be preparing to…
I have been day trading since 2001. And I can assure you that successful day trading is mostly not what it looks like. When people first hear “day trading,” they often think about fast charts, quick decisions, constant action, and…
Today, we look at what we regard as the best reversal strategy. For decades, markets have shown a surprisingly persistent tendency to rebound early in the week after a rough start. It is simple and easy to backtest (and to…
Today, we show you a mean reversion strategy for Semiconductors. Why semis? Semiconductor stocks are among the most exciting, and volatile, corners of the market. They can trend strongly for long periods, but they also tend to overreact in the…
Today, we look at Larry Connor’s RSI strategy, published two decades ago, and show that it works just as well now as it did then. We have traded parts of the strategy since 2002, and we published the sell trigger…
Your best trading edge may not be a setup, indicator, or platform. It may be the traders you meet. If you connect with smart, adaptable traders, that is worth a ton more than anything else. The people you surround yourself…
Today, we’ll revisit a strategy we call the Low Risk Pullback Strategy. I first published this idea on the blog more than ten years ago, and it remains a useful concept for traders who prefer patience over chasing prices. Most…
The RSI Drop Trading Strategy is a systematic mean-reversion approach designed to identify these moments of temporary weakness. Instead of buying simply because a stock or market has fallen, the strategy uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to measure when…
Investors have a variety of options when it comes to investing strategies — Bond vs. Equity, Passive vs. Active, and Value vs. Growth strategy. Here, we focus on the two most popular strategies — Growth Investing and Value Investing. The…
Every quant who has stared at a backtest’s equity curve has felt the pull of a “hot streak.” A strategy wins five, six, seven trades in a row, and the temptation is to believe the model has found something real….
The CCI (Commodity Channel Index) is a technical indicator that measures the current price level of a security relative to an average price level over a given period. It is a momentum oscillator that is used to identify extreme conditions,…
Different order types can result in vastly different outcomes, which is why it is important to understand the type of order you use. If you want your order to be filled at your specified price, go for a limit order….
Meb Faber has several times stated that he is a trend follower at heart. In 2015, he published an article about a momentum and trend-following strategy called Meb Faber’s Three-Way Model in gold, stocks, and bonds. The model came from…
Today we will look at another trend following strategy developed by a famous fund manager long ago. It’s called Fabian Timing Model and was developed by Richard Fabian in the 1960s. The Fabian timing model is a simple quantitative long-term trend…
Image from: Pexels Profitable investors focus way more on managing unexpected swings than making accurate predictions. Most mainstream market commentary fixates on trying to guess the next major economic shift or corporate earnings report. However, experienced systematic traders know that…
Imagine making $100 million in a single day. That is reportedly what Paul Tudor Jones did during the 1987 stock market crash. But the most interesting part is not only how much he made. It is how simple the underlying…
Commodities, being closely tied to weather patterns and economic activity, exhibit high cyclical characteristics. Similarly, stocks also display cyclical tendencies. Given this, is there an opportunity to capitalize on their optimal performance? The commodities to equity ratio tries to do…
Momentum is one of the most studied anomalies in traditional finance, but applying it to cryptocurrency introduces a unique set of complications. Extreme volatility, regime shifts, and thin liquidity windows all affect whether a rules-based entry truly carries an edge….
Quantifying the FX robot advantage reveals a startling gap in performance because approximately 60% of automated retail traders generate positive annual returns, while 90-95% of manual traders find themselves consistently failing or losing money. The reason for this discrepancy is…
A trend following strategy for the S&P 500 is one of those ideas that seems almost too simple to work: be invested when the market is rising, and step aside when it starts falling. Despite this simplicity, the approach has…
Larry Connors‘ %b strategy is a mean-reversion strategy outlined in Chapter 5 of his book “High Probability Trading.” It involves buying when the close is above the 200-day moving average, and %b is below 0.2 for the last three consecutive days….
This article presents some trend following strategies on Bitcoin. Cryptocurrency markets have many of the characteristics of the commodities markets: Wild swings and gyrations, both up and down, exactly what is needed for trend following and momentum strategies. Does this…
Bollinger Band squeeze strategy is a popular approach for spotting low volatility breakouts before strong price moves begin. In all financial markets, volatility moves in cycles. Quiet periods with tight price action are often followed by sharp expansions in volatility….
The Death Cross trading signal is a staple of financial news, often used to spark fear when markets like the S&P 500 or Bitcoin begin to slide. But does this indicator actually predict a market crash, or is it just…
The end-of-month effect (also called the Ultimo Effect) is a well-known trading strategy in the stock market. We have covered this anomaly before. Perhaps what is lesser known is that the effect spills over to the first three days of…
You are going to learn about Bollinger Bands trading strategies with backtests and performance in this article. This guide explains how to use Bollinger Bands for strong market entry and exit frames, exploiting periods of market calm and volatility alike….
A MACD histogram trading strategy identifies trend momentum shifts by measuring the distance between the MACD line and signal line. Key strategies include buying when bars shrink below the zero line (bottoming) or expanding above it (uptrend strength), and selling…
The 5-Day Low of The Range Strategy, with its simple criteria of IBS lower than 0.25 and the close lower than the lowest low of the previous 5 days, has shown remarkable results. Over the period from January 1993 until…
Momentum trading strategies are the practice of buying and selling assets according to the recent strength of price trends. Traders who use the strategy aim to buy securities that have been showing an upward price trend and short-sell securities that…
Crypto markets are all about discipline, not hunches, which plays well with traders who like rules over noise. Infrastructure choices deserve the same practical scrutiny. Tools such as NuxGame crypto casino software can be viewed through a quantitative lens. Think…
While retail participation in financial markets has surged since the mid-2000s, especially following the 2020 pandemic and events like the 2021 GameStop short squeeze, retail traders often face the daunting challenge of competing with high-frequency trading (HFT) algorithms. Finding proven…
Can we make a successful momentum trading strategy? Momentum trading is the opposite of buying low and selling high: momentum is about buying strength. Yes, a momentum strategy for the S&P 500 works. Let’s show you why a momentum strategy…
Heikin Ashi are a modified price representation designed to filter out market noise and highlight trend direction more clearly than traditional Japanese candlesticks. Originally introduced to Western markets in the 1990s, this charting technique has become popular among traders looking…
Somewhere underneath the slick mobile apps and instant payment confirmations sits a core system that might be running on COBOL written in 1978. Not a guess — a documented reality for hundreds of institutions worldwide. In 2026, open banking mandates,…
August 2021 marked my 20-year anniversary as a full-time investor (day trading 2001-18), and I have learned a few trading lessons. I started trading when I was laid off after the dot-com bubble and dumped by my girlfriend. I thought…
Most people walk into a casino — or open one on their phone — and treat it as a coin flip dressed up in neon. Traders and systematic thinkers rarely make that mistake. For anyone who has spent time modeling…
What happens to stocks when bonds go up? Any stock investor or trader should have a basic understanding of the relationship between stocks and interest rates. Why? Because the interest rates influence investors’ risk appetite. When interest rates are high,…
There’s a question that comes up constantly among traders moving from spot exchanges into derivatives: are CFDs and spot crypto just different packaging for the same thing? The short answer is no, and the longer answer matters a lot if…
The options expiration happens on the Friday before the 3rd Saturday of each month in the US. An often referred to effect is the options expiration week effect. Is this effect real, or is it just a myth? In this…
A moving average crossover strategy uses two or more moving averages to generate objective buy and sell signals based on trend shifts. When the lines cross, traders have a clear, rule-based trigger for potential entries and exits. This approach removes…