The Best Seasonal Period in the Stock Market – October to April Performance

ByOddmund Groette Quantified Investment Strategies

Some weeks ago I published an article looking at the worst month in the stock market: September.

Today, 29th of September, as September is coming to an end, and we’re about to enter the best season being invested in stocks: October to the end of April.

Let’s look at two portfolios: One invested from the close of September to the close of April (next year), and one invested from the close of April to the close of September.

The compounded profits from being invested from October to April from 1970 until today look like this:

October to April is the best season being invested in stocks.

100 000 is worth 3 million after 50 years being invested in the best period (not including dividends, so this number is grossly underestimated).

Being invested from the close of April until the close of September yields practically no return during 50 years:

Being invested in stocks from April until October yields very poor returns.

The difference in performance is pretty spectacular:

 GoodBad
 periodperiod
Avg. Gain7.87%0.82%
Win-ratio7466.6
Avg. Win13.62%5.99%
Avg. Loss-8.49%-9.53%
Profit factor4.021.09

Disclosure: I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own due diligence and investment research or consult a financial professional. All articles are my opinion – they are not suggestions to buy or sell any securities.

FAQ:

– Why is there a focus on the stock market’s performance during specific months, like September and October?

The focus on specific months, such as September and October, is due to historical patterns and trends in the stock market. Certain months have gained a reputation for being either favorable or challenging for investors.

– How does the performance of a portfolio invested from October to April compare to one invested from April to September?

The compounded profits from a portfolio invested from October to April historically outperform a portfolio invested from April to September. The difference in performance is significant over a 50-year period.

– How has the stock market performance differed between the good (October to April) and bad (April to September) periods over the years?

The difference in performance between the good (October to April) and bad (April to September) periods is substantial. The good period shows higher average gains, a higher win ratio, and a more favorable profit factor.

I’ve got an Msc from Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh (1996), in addition a to a business administration degree the Norwegian School of Management (BI – 1994). Did my mandatory military service in between.

After university, I worked two years as an auditor (1996-1998).

I co-founded Aksjeforum.com in 1998/99 - one of the first websites about trading and investing in Norway. It was later acquired by Digi.no in 2001.

I have written 4 books about trading (in Norwegian). One of them has sold 30,000 copies, a record for a financial book in Norway.

From 2001 until 2018 full-time independent prop trader (Series 7 in 2001) and investor.

2018-today: Investor, writer, analyst.

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