Some days back I wrote about daily seasonality in the S&P 500. As a proxy, I use SPY, an ETF. As I have been trading for some years I have noticed there is often a reversal on Tuesdays. Actually, this “fact” is well researched over the years. However, I want to measure it myself using my own parameters. Let’s test at reversal trading strategy.
The Tuesday Reversal Trading Strategy (S&P 500 – SPY)
As you can see from the first article, Tuesdays are indeed the best day of the week over the last 2.5 years. Tuesdays are very good no matter what has happened before Tuesdays. The last 2.5 years have been much better than the years before 2010.
Here are some potential trading tactics:
If today is Monday, the close is lower than the previous day (Friday), go long at the close. Exit on tomorrow’s close:
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | |
| Average | 0.09 | 0.11 | -0.06 | -0.11 | 0.12 |
| #Fills | 51 | 55 | 61 | 56 | 54 |
| #wins | 26 | 33 | 31 | 28 | 31 |
| Max | 4.66 | 2.82 | 4.49 | 2.49 | 4.40 |
| Min | -3.09 | -2.95 | -3.77 | -2.62 | -6.51 |
| Avg. max next 3 days | 1.49 | 1.22 | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.77 |
| Avg. min next 3 days | -1.55 | -1.68 | -1.59 | -1.62 | -1.32 |
The column Monday consists of the average gain from the close on Monday until the close on Tuesday.
If there are two down days in a row we get these results:
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | |
| Average | -0.06 | 0.10 | -0.65 | -0.13 | 0.23 |
| #Fills | 22 | 27 | 22 | 29 | 28 |
| #wins | 8 | 16 | 6 | 15 | 16 |
| Max | 4.66 | 2.82 | 1.32 | 2.06 | 4.40 |
| Min | -2.78 | -2.95 | -3.77 | -2.52 | -6.51 |
| Avg. max next 3 days | 1.52 | 1.35 | 0.97 | 1.48 | 2.09 |
| Avg. min next 3 days | -1.62 | -1.60 | -2.10 | -1.56 | -1.32 |
Now, if today is an up day, we get the following results:
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | |
| Average | 0.18 | -0.04 | 0.11 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| #Fills | 63 | 74 | 69 | 72 | 72 |
| #wins | 38 | 34 | 41 | 46 | 40 |
| Max | 3.30 | 4.11 | 3.49 | 1.90 | 2.87 |
| Min | -2.35 | -4.42 | -4.69 | -3.52 | -2.00 |
| Avg. max next 3 days | 1.26 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.11 | 1.14 |
| Avg. min next 3 days | -1.36 | -1.34 | -1.33 | -1.20 | -1.20 |
If today is the second day in a row up, we get the following:
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | |
| Average | 0.08 | -0.14 | 0.16 | -0.07 | 0.00 |
| #Fills | 37 | 42 | 35 | 41 | 45 |
| #wins | 21 | 18 | 22 | 24 | 25 |
| Max | 1.81 | 4.11 | 1.93 | 1.48 | 2.12 |
| Min | -1.95 | -3.69 | -2.20 | -3.52 | -2.00 |
| Avg. max next 3 days | 1.03 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| Avg. min next 3 days | -1.13 | -1.47 | -0.98 | -1.24 | -1.08 |
What about intraday strategies?
If Monday is a down day (compared to Friday’s close), then go long at tomorrow’s open if the market opens down (from Tuesday’s open). Exit on close:
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | |
| Average | -0.12 | 0.17 | -0.13 | -0.11 | 0.00 |
| #Fills | 21 | 31 | 25 | 27 | 25 |
| #wins | 12 | 14 | 11 | 17 | 12 |
| Max | 1.92 | 3.68 | 0.99 | 1.18 | 3.02 |
| Min | -3.98 | -1.82 | -1.54 | -2.86 | -1.79 |
| Avg. max next 3 days | 1.65 | 1.59 | 1.07 | 1.48 | 2.26 |
| Avg. min next 3 days | -1.34 | -1.47 | -1.83 | -1.49 | -1.32 |
Tuesday is the only profitable!
What happens if the market opens up?
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | |
| Average | -0.10 | 0.28 | 0.16 | -0.04 | -0.15 |
| #Fills | 27 | 29 | 29 | 32 | 30 |
| #wins | 14 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 12 |
| Max | 1.61 | 2.99 | 2.08 | 3.59 | 1.24 |
| Min | -2.12 | -1.45 | -2.99 | -2.36 | -1.51 |
| Avg. max next 3 days | 1.50 | 1.41 | 0.91 | 1.30 | 1.21 |
| Avg. min next 3 days | -1.91 | -1.15 | -1.97 | -1.26 | -1.40 |
Tuesdays are even better when the market opens up!
One can make many twists with this. For example, only going long on Tuesdays if SPY falls from the open.
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Conclusion:
Because of the strong mean reversion tendencies in the S&P 500, reversal trading strategies work well in the stock market, at least for the time being. You might also want to read about the Turnaround Tuesday trading strategy.
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