Christmas Day is one of the federal holidays in the US. But how does it affect the US financial markets? Is there a Santa Claus rally in stocks? Can we develop trading strategies for this holiday season? Our trading strategy…
The lunchtime effect in the stock market, particularly in the U.S., refers to a noticeable pattern where trading volumes and returns drop during lunch hours, typically between 11:30 AM and 1:00 PM. This phenomenon has been observed across various markets…
The 4th of July (Independence Day) is one of the federal holidays in the US. How does it affect the US financial markets? The US financial markets do not open on the 4th of July, being a federal holiday to…
Some traders believe they can use the phases of the moon cycle (lunar cycles), such as the full moon, to time the market and make profitable trading decisions. This has given rise to the Full Moon/Moon Phases/Lunar Cycles Trading Strategies….
Easter is a Christian holiday celebrated across the world. But does it affect trading on the U.S. stock exchanges and other financial markets? We look at how the stock market performs before and after the Easter holiday. Additionally, we specifically…
Let’s look at the tax day trading strategy because most US taxpayers have a deadline on the 15th of April to file their tax returns. If the date is on a Saturday, Sunday, or legal holiday, the due date is…
Quad witching (quadruple witching) refers to the expiry of four financial derivative contracts on the same day: stock index futures, stock index options, single stock options, and single stock futures (the latter have low volumes and are most likely not…
St. Patrick’s Day is an important day for Catholics. Is the day just as green for stocks as for those celebrating? St. Patrick’s Day is one of the best days of the year for stocks, but that is thanks to…
The options expiration happens on the Friday before the 3rd Saturday of each month in the US. An often referred to effect is the options expiration week effect. Is this effect real, or is it just a myth? In this…
The Valentine’s Day rally is an annual event in which stock prices tend to increase in anticipation of the romantic holiday. The rally has been studied extensively by investors and economists alike, with a variety of conclusions drawn from the…
Given that the Super Bowl is such a big event for Americans, can we spot any seasonal trends before and after the event? Is the Super Bowl bullish or bearish for stocks and bonds? Is there a Super Bowl indicator?…
George Washington’s Day/Presidents’ Day is a federal holiday in the US. But does it affect the US stock market? The US financial markets do not open on George Washington’s Day or Presidents’ Day. Trading does not take place on any…
The January Barometer is a seasonal trading strategy that worked over many decades. While the traditional January Effect seems to be arbed away, the January Barometer has worked well for many decades. This is the January effect that works – the January…
Martin Luther King Jr. Day is one of the federal holidays observed in the US. How does it affect trading on the US stock markets? The US financial markets do not open on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which is…
The January Effect Stock Market is a well-known seasonality and anomaly. The January Effect was first observed by investment banker Sidney Wachtel in 1925. It refers to the tendency for stock prices to rise in January. This anomaly has puzzled investors…
There are many seasonals in the financial markets. Today, we are looking at the performance for stocks, bonds, and gold when a new year starts. Is there a start of the year rally? Related reading: Start of the year rally…
As the year is drawing to a close, you might have heard about an end-of-year stock market rally. Is this seasonality true, fiction, or myth? The end of year rally is no myth or fiction: research shows that stocks tend to…
The Santa Claus Rally in DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 Our backtests show significantly better performance during the Christmas season and the end of the year. The Santa Claus rally is no myth in Europe, either! The end of year…
Friday the 13th has long been associated with bad luck, though the exact origin of the superstition is not known (to our knowledge). Those who grew up reading Donald Duck know the bad luck that happened on Friday the 13th….
Can we develop a Thanksgiving holiday seasonal trading strategy? Is Thanksgiving bullish or bearish for stocks? Thanksgiving Day is one of the federal holidays in the US. The day after Thanksgiving is called Black Friday and is a day when…
For many years, we have witnessed a weekend effect in Bitcoin from late Friday to late Monday. Moreover, volume tends to drop, and perhaps the lack of volume makes the price go up. Key takeaways: Introduction to the Weekend Effect…
As with many other sociopolitical events, election periods affect stock market performance. Although forecasting the market is mostly futile, previous tendencies in Election Day Performance in Stock Markets before, during, and after election day can be a good guide. But…
The phrase “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur” has been a cornerstone of trading “folklore” for decades, at least since Eisenhower was president. Its origins trace back to a belief that September, when these Jewish holidays typically fall, is a…
Are there any daily seasonalities in the S&P 500? I did some research into SPY, an ETF based on the S&P 500 components and a very good proxy, based average return on which day of the month. To get a…
It’s a well-known fact that as options expiry day approaches, the biggest-cap stocks with actively traded options tend to witness huge trading volumes (and sometimes increased volatility). In fact, the most important day in stock trading is the expiry day….
The first day of the month seasonality is strong in most markets. We have previously written about the turn of the month trading strategy, but today we look at the first trading day of the month. The turn of the…
What are the best days to trade stocks? The best days to trade stocks are Tuesdays, the first days of a month, the last days of a month, and the end of the year (4th quarter). Becoming a proficient trader…
Below you can find the gain each year from 1997 until 2011 in OBX. It’s divided into two: The whole of December and the 2nd half of December. The 2nd half is from the close of the 15th or the…
Rosh Hashanah in commonly known as the Jewish New Year. This, of course, means a lot for Jewish people, who celebrate it during a three-day holiday. But during that timeframe, the market is generally open. Can we make a profitable…
Research shows higher stock market returns from November through April than for the rest of the year. Can we confirm that there is a Halloween effect in trading? Yes, there is a Halloween effect in trading. From November to April,…
Day of the week effect In trading. The weekday effect in trading can be a handy trading edge because trading is about exploiting small trading edges in the market. If you work hard and diversify with different markets, time frames,…
Just like we can develop seasonal trading strategies in the overall stock market, we can find potentially profitable seasonal trading strategies in the retail sector. This article presents one such opportunity. Are there any seasonalities in retail stocks? Some years…
The Memorial Day holiday is one of the federal holidays in the US. How does it affect trading in the US financial markets? The US financial markets do not open on Memorial Day because it is a federal holiday. Trading…
The Labor Day holiday is one of the federal holidays observed in the US. But does it affect the US financial markets? The US financial markets do not open on the Labor Day holiday, which is the first Monday in…
Is it smart to own stocks over the weekend? On of the biggest financial websites writes that the weekend effect is a phenomenon in financial markets in which stock returns on Mondays are often significantly lower than those of the…
Bitcoin is traded 24/7 and there exists a few seasonal patterns. For example, being invested from 5 PM to 7 PM any day has paid off well, and so has being invested on certain days. Let’s look at a Bitcoin…
Many investors focus on searching for seasonalities in the US stock market. However, seasonal patterns can also be exploited in international stock markets. Today we will show you a seasonal trading strategy for the German stock market. It is based…
SPY seasonality trading can be very profitable if done correctly. We like SPY seasonality and have made plenty of SPY seasonality trading. In this article, we look at several SPY seasonality patterns. But first, what is a SPY seasonality? What…
The end-of-month effect (also called the Ultimo Effect) is a well-known trading strategy in the stock market. We have covered this anomaly before. Perhaps what is lesser known is that the effect spills over to the first three days of…
There are many seasonal patterns in the US market. For example holiday effects, the end of month effect, the first day of month, and, of course, the ‘Sell in May and go away’ strategy. However, there is also a investing…
Seasonal trends in the financial markets are many, and the stock market is no exception. Some months are better than others. What is the weakest month in the stock market? The weakest month in the stock market is September. The…
In the United States, a presidential election is held every four years. Those presidential elections have been observed to affect many government sectors, including legislation, international relations, and even the stock market. This occurrence inspired the concept of 4-year presidential…
New Year’s Eve is often a time for optimism and celebration. Does this spill over to the stock market? Is there a New Year’s eve effect in stocks? There is no particular seasonal New Year’s Eve effect in stocks, but…
The Best 6 Months Timing Model strategy by Yale Hirsch is an active and simple strategy that uses market timings and can be implemented using any asset class and portfolio. Using this strategy, you do not need to be in…
Holiday effects (or as they are also known calendar effects) are very well-known anomalies in trading. Around these dates, like the 4th of July or Thanksgiving, for example, the market tends to perform better over a short period of time….
“Sell in May and Go Away” is a strategy suggesting investors should sell stocks in May and buy back in November to avoid typically weaker markets from May to October. The effectiveness is debated, as results vary year by year….
The Congressional Effect in stocks– we suspect you have never heard of it. Neither had we! But this is one of the many seasonal effects in the stock market. The man behind the effect, hedge fund manager Eric Singer, had…
Yom Kippur is one of the most important days in the Jewish calendar. However, it is not an official holiday and the market remains open during those days. So the question is, does the market perform well during Yom Kippur?…
The Holiday effect system in the stock market is a well-known anomaly and seasonality. Is there a way to profit from the holiday effect seasonality? Are there any holiday effects in the stock markets? If so, which holiday is the…
Backtests and statistics of five different futures contracts reveal that most of the price action is random throughout the trading day. However, by implementing one or two extra variables, we find some potential trading edges or strategies. Let’s go straight…
What is the worst month of the year for stocks? Let’s look at the statistics for the last 50 years and find out. It turns out the historical performance of the months varies a lot. Some months are better than…
The fourth quarter is a strong period for stocks. But which five-day period is best? We did a test to find out which calendar days of which month produce the best five-day returns. The best five-day periods to own stocks…
There are many effects and seasonalities in the stock market. One frequently mentioned seasonality is the first trading day of the month effect. Is the first trading day of the month effect a myth or fact? In this article, we…
One of the most important factors in becoming a good trader is to know when you should NOT trade. The art of when to do nothing and just sit on your hands is just as important as anything else. So,…
Is there a distinct trend in the U.S. stock market’s returns during the closing days of calendar quarters? Do investment funds strategically allocate cash to drive up stock prices to enhance portfolio values in quarterly reports? Is there a unique…
The last trading day of the month offers trading opportunities. This is one of many seasonal trading strategies. Can we make a last trading day of the month trading strategy? The last trading day of the month is a weak…
