Author: Oddmund Groette

Can a single trading rule really beat the market? It sounds too simple to be true, but our backtests suggest otherwise. In this article, we explore whether one straightforward rule can outperform buy-and-hold investing, both in stocks and in crypto….

Investors love certainty, but markets rarely offer it. Still, some frameworks help us think more clearly about what drives returns—especially over the long term. One of the most intuitive was developed by none other than John Bogle, the founder of…

Imagine investing your hard-earned money in the stock market, waiting a full decade, and seeing little to no growth, or even a loss. That’s the dreaded “lost decade” for the S&P 500, a period where the market barely budges, leaving…

Dividend stocks have long been a favored choice for investors seeking steady income and potential stability, particularly within the S&P 500, a benchmark index of 500 leading U.S. companies. With approximately 80% of S&P 500 companies paying dividends as of…

The S&P 500 tracks 500 leading U.S. companies, making it a reliable gauge of market health. Whether you’re a day trader, long-term investor, or just curious about market behavior, understanding the likelihood of a positive day can shape your strategy….

Want to outsmart the stock market? An insider portfolio, built on the trades of company executives and directors, might give you an edge. Can an insider portfolio beat the market? Research says it’s possible, with potential returns of 11% to…

The S&P 500, a benchmark index tracking about 500 large U.S. companies, serves as a proxy for the broader stock market’s performance. Yet, data from 1928 to today shows it underperforms cash—represented by 3-month Treasury bills—roughly 19.59% of the time…

As U.S. presidential elections approach, investors often wonder how the stock market, particularly the S&P 500, will perform. Election years bring political uncertainty, campaign promises, and economic shifts, all of which can influence market trends. So, what are the odds…

Market timing is often described as a futile exercise. Yet, seasoned investors know that certain seasonal patterns can influence returns. This article concludes that October is the best month to buy stocks. One of the most persistent patterns in the…

This note provides an analysis of the probability of losing money in the stock market over a long-term horizon, specifically focusing on 10-year rolling returns for the S&P 500. The analysis is grounded in historical data and aims to address…

Timing the stock market is a dream for many investors, but is it possible? By analyzing historical data, we looked at quarterly performance patterns in the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) that suggest some quarters may offer better opportunities…

The S&P 500 is a cornerstone of the U.S. stock market, tracking 500 of the nation’s largest companies. For investors, it’s a key indicator of economic health—but it’s not without its wild swings. A common question arises: how often does…

Imagine a trading strategy so simple it takes just five minutes a year to manage, yet it has outperformed the Nasdaq for over a decade. That’s exactly what @thechartist showed on X. This strategy, pairing two ETFs with a once-a-year…

Midterm elections, occurring every four years halfway through a U.S. president’s term, are events that can reshape Congress and influence legislative agendas. Given their potential impact on economic policy, it’s natural for investors to wonder how these elections affect the…

The S&P 500, or Standard & Poor’s 500, is a market-capitalization-weighted index comprising 500 leading publicly traded companies in the United States. Launched in 1957, it covers approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of U.S. equities and is widely…

The question of whether a monkey picking stocks could outperform a hedge fund manager is a fascinating thought experiment often used to highlight the challenges of beating the market. It seems likely that, on average, random stock selection could indeed…

When the stock market crashes, it feels like the world is ending. Your portfolio’s in tatters, the news is a wall of gloom, and all you can think is: How long will it take to get back to normal? How…

This article note provides a comprehensive examination of whether a coin toss can beat Wall Street’s top investors, drawing on a range of studies, experiments, and financial theories. Background and Context The question of whether random strategies, such as a…

Mondays often feel like a drag. After a relaxing weekend, traders might dread the market open, blaming bad trades on the “Monday blues.” But is this just a feeling, or do the markets actually underperform on Mondays? To find out,…

Could the S&P 500 be in a bear market without you noticing? It’s a question that might make any investor pause. In this article, we’ll explore the probability of a stealth bear market using the 200-day moving average as our…

When the stock market closes on Friday, many traders and investors assume their portfolios are on hold until Monday. But are weekends secretly impacting your returns? New data reveals how the S&P 500, long-term Treasury bonds, and Bitcoin perform over…